Prediction Markets Face Anger

Level 3 Lesson by: Aron Thode Source: theguardian.com

Warm-up → Read & Listen → Check Understanding → Language → Use It

Close-up of a dark, modern prediction market interface showing the question, “Will the government confirm aliens exist by 2027?” with two large outcome buttons below: “Yes 53%” in green and “No 47%” in red. Smaller market details and blurred charts sit in the background, giving the screen a polished financial-platform look.
What's your prediction?

A prediction market is a site where people bet on future events. Polymarket, along with the larger company Kalshi, offers bets on many topics, from politics to movies and games.

Polymarket has offered some unusual markets. One asked if the US would confirm that aliens exist. Another focused on a possible nuclear war. That market now seems to have been removed after many people online said it was wrong to bet on an event that could kill millions of people.

These sites have grabbed attention because they let people bet on current events, even when it may seem wrong. They have also grown because they make betting feel simple. Users often see a yes or no choice and a percentage instead of betting odds such as 5-1 or 11-2. Some bets are less serious, such as guessing the release date of Grand Theft Auto VI or the Oscar winner.

However, the sites also face questions about cheating. Reports say some users with inside knowledge made money by betting on major events. These included the US plan to capture the Venezuelan president and the attack on Iran.

Until recently, US officials and the companies seemed less worried about this problem. Last month, Kalshi said it stopped two users from betting and fined them for cheating. It also said it was looking into 200 possible cases of breaking the rules. As anger over war betting grows, authorities are looking more closely at these companies.

Vocab List

  • bet (v.) — To risk money on what you think will happen.
  • future event (n. phrase) — Something that may happen later.
  • capture (v.) — To catch a person and take control of them.
  • criticism (n.) — Strong opinions that something is wrong or bad.
  • betting odds (n. phrase) — Numbers that show how likely something is and how much money a bet can win.
  • cheat (v.) — To act dishonestly to get an advantage.
  • inside knowledge (n. phrase) — Private information that other people do not have.
  • grab attention (v. phrase) — To make people notice something.
  • authority (n.) — A person or group with the power to make rules and make people follow them.
  • prediction (n.) — A statement or guess about what will happen in the future.

Speaker: American Male  Duration: 1:51

YouTube link

Listen and fill the gaps below:

Listen and Fill Gaps

Listen to the audio and complete the gaps below:

A prediction market is a site where people bet on (1) __________ events. Polymarket, along with the larger company Kalshi, offers bets on many topics, from politics to movies and games. Polymarket has offered some unusual markets. One asked if the US would confirm that aliens exist. Another focused on a possible nuclear war. That market now seems to have been (2) __________ after many people online said it was wrong to bet on an event that could kill millions of people. These sites have grabbed attention because they let people bet on current events, even when it may seem wrong. They have also grown because they make betting feel (3) __________. Users often see a yes or no choice and a percentage instead of betting (4) __________ such as 5-1 or 11-2. Some bets are less serious, such as guessing the release date of Grand Theft Auto VI or the Oscar winner. However, the sites also face questions about cheating. Reports say some users with inside knowledge made (5) __________ by betting on major events. These included the US plan to capture the Venezuelan president and the attack on Iran. Until recently, US officials and the companies seemed less worried about this problem. Last month, Kalshi said it stopped two users from betting and fined them for cheating. It also said it was looking into 200 possible cases of breaking the rules. As anger over war betting grows, (6) __________ are looking more closely at these companies.
True or False

Answer each question by selecting True or False, then click CHECK to see your results.

  • Polymarket and Kalshi offer bets only on politics.
    The story says they offer bets on many topics, from politics to movies and games.
  • One Polymarket market asked if the US would confirm that aliens exist.
    The story says one market asked if the US would confirm that aliens exist.
  • Kalshi said it was looking into 200 possible cases of breaking the rules.
    The story says Kalshi was looking into 200 possible cases of breaking the rules.

True or False

1. Polymarket and Kalshi offer bets only on politics. T / F

2. One Polymarket market asked if the US would confirm that aliens exist. T / F

3. Kalshi said it was looking into 200 possible cases of breaking the rules. T / F

Multiple Choice

1. Why did the nuclear war market upset many people online?

   A) Because it used old betting odds.

   B) Because it was about movies and games.

   C) Because people said it was wrong to bet on an event that could kill millions of people.

   D) Because the company was larger than Kalshi.

2. How do these sites make betting feel simple?

   A) They let users speak to company officials.

   B) They remove all unusual markets.

   C) They show a yes or no choice and a percentage.

   D) They use only odds such as 5-1 or 11-2.

3. What did Kalshi say it did last month?

   A) It stopped all betting on politics.

   B) It removed prediction markets about movies.

   C) It confirmed inside knowledge reports.

   D) It stopped two users from betting and fined them for cheating.

Words That Go Together

Loading vocabulary activity...

Words That Go Together

Match each word with the words it goes with:

1. Bet on

2. Grab

3. Face

4. Make

5. Guess

6. Break

a) the rules

b) the release date

c) money

d) questions

e) attention

f) events

Discussion Builder

Discussion Builder

Choose the best phrase for each gap:

  1. These sites look simple, ________ some topics still make people angry.

    because / but / and

  2. People worry about inside knowledge ________ it can give some users an unfair advantage.

    because / so / and

  3. A market about war can upset people. ________ authorities may watch these companies more closely.

    Also, / Because of that, / For example,

Sentence Unscramble

  1. ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___

    A. go too far B. when they use C. some prediction markets D. I think E. as entertainment. F. war

  2. ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___

    A. in a site B. becomes C. if D. a serious problem. E. lose trust F. People may G. cheating

  3. ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___

    A. can attract B. yes-or-no bet C. very quickly. D. users E. a simple F. For example,

Discussion Questions

  1. Why do people enjoy making predictions about the future?
  2. What area do you think you can predict best: sports, politics, weather, or something else?
  3. How accurate are the weather prediction services in your country?
  4. Why do some people like risking their money?
  5. In your country, is it legal to bet on things? What things?
  6. Would you ever use a prediction market? Why or why not?
  7. Do simple yes-or-no choices make betting seem less serious?
  8. Are movie and game bets harmless, or can they still cause problems?
  9. What do you think about people using inside information to make money?
  10. Is it wrong to bet on an event like nuclear war? Why?

Answers

Think Ahead: c

Listening: (1) future, (2) removed, (3) simple, (4) odds, (5) money, (6) authorities

True or False:

  1. False. The story says they offer bets on many topics, from politics to movies and games.
  2. True. The story says one market asked if the US would confirm that aliens exist.
  3. True. The story says Kalshi was looking into 200 possible cases of breaking the rules.

Multiple Choice: C, C, D

Vocabulary:

  1. Bet on: events
  2. Grab: attention
  3. Face: questions
  1. Make: money
  2. Guess: the release date
  3. Break: the rules

Discussion Builder:

Hints: 1) Contrast. 2) Reason. 3) Result.

  1. but
  2. because
  3. Because of that,

Sentence Unscramble:

  1. I think some prediction markets go too far when they use war as entertainment.
  2. People may lose trust in a site if cheating becomes a serious problem.
  3. For example, a simple yes-or-no bet can attract users very quickly.

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